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Syria: Past, Present and Possibilities

Reconstructed from notes on a lecture given December 16, 2024 sponsored by Palestine Action of South Sound (PASS)

In examining Syria today, it is important to begin with the needs, desires, concerns and possibilities of the Syrian people, especially the popular classes, women, and ethnic and religious groups that have been discriminated against.

A thumbnail history

Syria, part of the Ottoman empire, became a French colony after WWI. Syria won independence in 1946 when France left. More recently, a civil war evolved out of Arab Spring protests.

The population was 22.5 million before the civil war. Although Syria is north of Arabia, most Syrians are considered ethnic Arabs and this ethnic group is by far the largest group in the country; Kurds are10%, Turkmen 4%. Now 6 million Syrians are refugees outside the country, with the majority in Turkey and 7 million internally displaced.

The majority of Syrians are Muslim. Within that religion, 74% are Sunni and 10-12% Shia. The Shia minority consists mainly of Alawites, and includes the Assad family. Christians compose 10% and Druze 3%.

Slightly over 50% of Syria is urban, 40% plus rural. Syria today is a very poor country.

The Baath Party ruled Syria from 1963 until December 7, 2024, first under Hafez Assad and then under his son, Bashar. Its foreign policy emphasized Pan Arabism. It called itself socialist, with an initial program of public ownership of industries. It had programs to benefit its people, and women had more rights than many countries in the Middle East. However, under the Assads, authority was top down and oriented towards the military. Dissent was cruelly punished. The Arab Spring was mostly a protest against the military control of the people.

The 1967 war was significant: Syria, Egypt and Jordan lost to Israel. In the aftermath, Israel occupied the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, and also 2/3 of the Golan Heights. Israel annexed this part of the Golan Heights in 1981 and occupied the rest after December 7th, 2024. Israel has also announced it will double the number of Jewish settlers and indefinitely maintain an illegal military occupation there. The U.S. recognized the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights during the first Trump administration, the only country to do so.

Hafez al-Assad, military leader and leader of the Ba’ath Party, seized power in 1971. Power was increasingly centralized under his authoritarian rule. The Assads were of the Alawite sect, and Hafez increasingly drew leaders of the military and security branches from that sect. Initially, Hafez emphasized nationalism, but in the 1970s he moved away from nationalization towards a mixed economy, which led to improvements in the countrys standard of living. Social programs also helped in the 1970s and early 1990’s, but problems arose growing enough food. Income was much higher in those days than today. Syria was aligned with the Soviet Union until its collapse.

There was increasing opposition to the al-Assad-led government, both by democratic and progressive groups and by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Assad government killed hundreds of anti-dictatorship citizens in Homs in 1981, and tens of thousands of civilians in Hama in 1982 in an uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood. There was increasing imprisonment and torture of all opposition.

In 1991, Syria supported the U.S. and Kuwait in our war against Iraq, the Gulf War. Hafez al-Assad died in 2000.

Hafez was followed by his son Bashar, a neo-liberal who cut back social programs and was increasingly brutal towards his people. Hafez was basically allied with Russia, although he worked with U.S. after 9/11/2001 in torturing people captured by the U.S. who were brought to Syria through extraordinary rendition. Nominally his party was Baath, but like his father, he increasingly turned to one person rule.

Armed Resistance

In 2011, the Arab Spring brought mass protests to Syria. It was a major and inspiring uprising, non-violent, and included the establishment of direct democracy in many places (see the book Burning Country by Robin Yasmin-Khattab and Leila Al-Shami). It was non-sectarian and inclusive of all ethnicities and religions. It called for the end of dictatorship and the Assad regime. The uprising was met by torture, repression and mass imprisonment of youths as young as 13 as Bashar al-Assad reasserted control.

In response to Bashars murderous violence, groups of protesters turned to armed resistance. Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia supported the armed rebellion and financed Jihadist groups. The Assad government almost fell. Ideological groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIS grew more powerful.

Beginning in 2013, Iran and Hezbollah grew increasingly involved in support of al-Assad and his brutal attacks on all opposition, Jihadist and secular. Hezbollah is a military group based in Lebanon, but friendly with Iran and influenced by Irans political ideas. Even with the support of Iran and Hezbollah, the Assad government lost legitimacy and control of a lot of territory.

In 2015, Russia began bombing all of Syria, dropping barrel bombs. The Syrian military began to use poison gas, as ordered by al-Assad, in opposition cities. Many of the bombed cities were near Damascus.

A Population in Flight

Millions of Syrians fled Syria and even more became internal refuges. Many fled to Idlib, a city in northwest Syria that was controlled by the Nusra Front, a rebel group that had been associated with Al Qaeda until 2016 when it split off.

From 2015 to 2024, Assad ruled by force and terror. During this time food availability declined, part of a major continuing decline in output and overall income.

The U.S. and Russia collaborated in major attacks on the insurgents, mainly mass bombings on ISIS-controlled areas in Syria. While one might have expected the U.S. to support ISIS as a group in opposition to a dictator, these insurgents were also fundamentalists that promised a strict theocracy; thus the U.S. opposed them. There was also major fighting by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in alliance with the U.S. Together these forces defeated ISIS. Rojava has been autonomous since then, in an uneasy agreement with Assad.

In 2017, I worked with Syrian refugees in Thessaloniki in northern Greece. They had migrated from Syria to Turkey, from which point they crossed the Aegean Sea to arrive in Thessaloniki, hoping to eventually migrate to western Europe. Many Syrians died en route. Each week for about 10 weeks in winter, 2017, I taught about a different country to where they might emigrate. My Syrian students were about ¾ Arab and ¼ Kurdish. Many had fled Syria for a combination of economic reasons and the war; others because of the repression of the government. I remember telling the Syrian refugees in class in Thessaloniki in January 2017 about the solidarity felt for Syrians and members of other Muslim countries by protesters blocking Kennedy and SeaTac airports. Some of the Syrians cried from their feelings of appreciation for those in the U.S. who took a stand against the Muslim ban.

Hundreds of thousands were killed in Syria by the regime and its backers, the majority civilians. There were disappearances, systematic torture and murder in prisons. The worst and most infamous prison was Sednaya in Damascus. Throughout it all, the military group Hezbollah continued its support of the Assad government, along with Russia and the government of Iran.

The Assad regime has expressed support for Gaza and Palestine in words but not in deeds. Syria has accepted many Palestinian refugees, about 450,000. Syria has been an important conduit for military aid from Iran to Hezbollah, which has used it to defend Lebanon and fight Israel in solidarity with Gaza. This is unlikely to continue in the present.

Rojava

Rojava is the eastern/northern region in Syria; it became autonomous (self-governing) in 2012, when rebelling groups captured the area from the government. Kurds are the dominant ethnic group. They refer to the area as West Kurdistan, although there is no actual Kurdistan of course. Kurds live in Iran, Syria, Iraq and Turkey. They are a people without a country. There are 5 million people in Rojava.

The governing group is the Kurdish party PYD (Democratic Union Party), closely allied to the Turkish party PKK (Kurdistan WorkersParty). Its platform includes support for womens equality and for cooperatives. Its ideas are for the most part democratic, influenced by our Murray Bookchin and the Kurdish eco-socialist leader Ocalan, now imprisoned in Turkey.

Turkey wants to destroy Rojava and the PYD. Although the area is not in Turkey, its existence encourages the idea of a Kurdish nation, which would be partially carved out of Turkey; thus the Turkish opposition. The U.S. has supported Rojava against the threat of full-scale Turkish invasion. The U.S.has at least 900 troops there and works closely with the Syrian Defense Force (SDF), the main military of Rojava, training and arming them. SDF also fought and still fights ISIS.

PYD is worth studying and worthy of support. There is much interest in Rojava in Olympia.

Latest Developments

Beginning in late November 2024, a major offensive took place against the Assad regime, first seizing Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria, and then Hama and Homs. The Syrian military collapsed, stopped fighting and fled from Damascus, as did Bashar al-Assad on December 7 or 8th. The main group from the north and leader of the forces overthrowing Assad’s regime was HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), an army led by Ahmed al-Shaara (previously Abu-Mohammad Julani). They have controlled Idlib Province since 2016. They are authoritarian and Islamist, Sunni, but claim to no longer discriminate against Shia, Christians or Kurds. There is repression in Idlib, but not on the level of Assad. They have taxed the population heavily.

HTS and al-Shaara are both on the U.S. and EU terrorist list. Its not clear how much support from Turkey the HTS receives, probably some. Support is less likely from the U.S. and Israel. It is rumored that the U.S. supports the HTS but let’s not claim this unless there is real evidence.

Other groups were involved in the takeover. One such group is the Syrian National Army (SNA), Turkish backed and armed, existing in uneasy alliance with HTS. With Turkish support and involvement, they have been attacking Rojava and seized at least one city, Manbij. The SNA is authoritarian and repressive. The Turkish army has also renewed its attacks against Rojava, although Turkey agreed to a cease fire with the U.S. on December 10, 2024.

More hopeful are groups from south of Damascus in Druze majority areas such as Suwayda, and local forces in Daraa. These groups retain some links to the popular uprising of 2011 and were involved in the liberation of Damascus on December 6-8, 2024

Concluding Comments!

Without the support of Russia and its military and Iran and the Hezbollah fighters, the Assad regime quickly collapsed. The Syrian military fled with little fighting. It shows how little legitimacy the Assad regime had. It was able to rule because of foreign support and force.

Role of Israel, Turkey and Russia

Since December 7, 2024, Israel has massively bombed Syria, the most since the 1967 and 1973 wars with Israel. There was some ongoing bombing by Israel on Syria before December 7, 2024, but not on this scale. Israel has seized land from Syria (the Golan Heights) and released murderous and daily bombs, mainly on military targets, throughout Syria — a total violation of Syrian sovereignty. Israel says its reason is a fear of an anti-Israeli government, whether now or in the future. This current bombing by Israel makes it somewhat unlikely that Israel supported the coalition led by HTS in its overthrow of the Assad government. If Israel was behind HTS, why would it bomb a government controlled by HTS and its leader, Ahmed al-Shaara?

Russia still has one or two military bases in Syria. Its not clear whether they will remain.

Popular support for the overthrow of Assad is overwhelming. I have been moved and cried reading about the opening of the prisons and the release of tens of thousands of political prisoners, including those at Sednaya — many with signs of torture and emaciated, but alive. Syrian prisons were some of the worst in the world. The prisoners remind me of the survivors of concentration camps. There were celebrations in the streets in most of the country, although less in Alawite areas where Assad still has support.

The Rojava area is dependent on the U.S. military for survival. Currently 900 or more U.S. troops are stationed there. They are needed for Rojava to maintain its autonomy in the face of the Turkish military and SNA attacks. SDF (the mainly Kurdish Rojavan army) is imprisoning 9000 ISIS fighters and 20,000 more of their family members.

ISIS still exists in Syria, mainly in NE Syria, near Rojava, which is near Syrian oilfields. This may be part of the reason for the U.S. military presence. Its not clear whether the U.S. military will continue to be there after Trump takes office.

What We Can Expect

Ahmed al-Shaara, the leader of HTS, has promised a civilian and inclusive government with elections. The UN has offered to send peacekeepers and support a government that supports womens rights, rights for religious and ethnic minorities, and human rights. I support that. However, we cant be sure of this outcome. A likely outcome, if a government is engineered from the top of the military hierarchy, is another authoritarian government with new enemies, bad for women, Alawites, Rojava, workers, Christians, and students. HTS and al-Shaara claim they favor Islamic rule but say they are not Jihadist. They say they are nationalists with no interests beyond Syria and will not favor Sunnis over other groups. We shall see! The Turkish military is in Syria, and likely to play a major and imperialist role.

There is a danger of a break up or partition of Syria into many areas controlled by different repressive and authoritarian groups. Only in Rojava can we expect egalitarian rule. Along with authoritarian rule, we can expect continued mass poverty. Syria has experienced continued economic decline and lack of food, education, and health care. Economic recovery and growth are needed.

Hope can be felt in the mass outpouring in the streets all over the country, and in the growth of civil society all signs of fundamental change from below. We see it in the growth of popular grass roots organizations, movements and unions and in new political parties re-emerging. Syrian history has been rich in these movements. There will be more of an opening now for a democratic and progressive Syria to emerge created from the bottom up than was possible under the Assad dictatorships. Its not that likely, but more possible than in the last 11 years.

A democratic and progressive Syria would be pro-Palestinian because the Syrian people do, and are likely to continue, to strongly support Gaza and the Palestinian struggle for self-determination.

Our Best Policy

Let us demand the right of Syrian refugees to stay in Turkey, the European Union, the U.S., Canada and other countries.

Let us here in the U.S. act in solidarity with popular movements in Syria and against Turkish domination and intervention in Kurdish areas and in the entire country. Lets support economic aid to Syria through the UN and our own non-neoliberal organizations! Syria needs economic reconstruction, but not neoliberalism. It would probably be best, in the short run at least, if U.S. troops stay until the Turkish threat is reduced. At that point, all foreign troops, Turkish, U.S., Russian and others, should withdraw.

References: Burning Country by Robin Yasmin-Khattab and Leila Al-Shami, excellent on 2011.

See interviews of 1) Joseph Daher and 2) Gilbert Achar on New Politics website, Newpol.org

Peter Bohmer is a Professor of political economy at The Evergreen State College

One Comment

  1. Charlie January 15, 2025

    Thank you for this clear history of Syria, with all its convolutions! We shall see what the Trump administration decides to do….

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